{"rows":[{"theater_id":"iran","trench_prob":0.44,"crowd_prob":0.144,"crowd_mode":"pinned","delta":0.296,"crowd":{"consensus_prob":0.144,"n_matched":1,"orientation":"escalation","markets":[{"title":"Will Iran strike US soil this year?","prob":0.144,"volume":12689.27,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MaxHarms/will-iran-strike-us-soil-this-year"}]}},{"theater_id":"israel","trench_prob":null,"crowd_prob":0.26,"crowd_mode":"pinned","delta":null,"crowd":{"consensus_prob":0.26,"n_matched":1,"orientation":"escalation","markets":[{"title":"Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?","prob":0.26,"volume":10896.38,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DracksathAudio/will-lebanon-be-at-war-with-israel"}]}},{"theater_id":"ukraine","trench_prob":0.18,"crowd_prob":0.73,"crowd_mode":"pinned","delta":-0.55,"crowd":{"consensus_prob":0.73,"n_matched":1,"orientation":"de-escalation","markets":[{"title":"Ukraine war ends in 2026?","prob":0.27,"volume":1502.57,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Gemc/ukraine-war-ends-in-2026"}]}},{"theater_id":"russia","trench_prob":null,"crowd_prob":0.087,"crowd_mode":"pinned","delta":null,"crowd":{"consensus_prob":0.087,"n_matched":1,"orientation":"escalation","markets":[{"title":"[Metaculus] Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?","prob":0.087,"volume":2413.78,"url":"https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-there-be-a-direct-co"}]}},{"theater_id":"taiwan","trench_prob":0.05,"crowd_prob":0.058,"crowd_mode":"pinned","delta":-0.008,"crowd":{"consensus_prob":0.058,"n_matched":1,"orientation":"escalation","markets":[{"title":"Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?","prob":0.058,"volume":15632.56,"url":"https://manifold.markets/CertaintyOfVictory/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas-e9672d6b84d1"}]}},{"theater_id":"north_korea","trench_prob":0.07,"crowd_prob":0.065,"crowd_mode":"pinned","delta":0.005,"crowd":{"consensus_prob":0.065,"n_matched":1,"orientation":"escalation","markets":[{"title":"Will North Korea enter the 2026 US-Iran war as a belligerent?","prob":0.065,"volume":1675.51,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LarsOsborne/will-north-korea-enter-the-2026-usi"}]}},{"theater_id":"china","trench_prob":null,"crowd_prob":0.082,"crowd_mode":"pinned","delta":null,"crowd":{"consensus_prob":0.082,"n_matched":1,"orientation":"escalation","markets":[{"title":"China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026","prob":0.082,"volume":3238.32,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottO/china-will-directly-engage-in-a-mil"}]}}],"summary":{"trench_analyzed_at":"2026-06-08T19:39:49.077156+00:00","n_theaters":7,"n_compared":4,"mean_abs_delta":0.215,"max_divergence":{"theater_id":"ukraine","trench_prob":0.18,"crowd_prob":0.73,"crowd_mode":"pinned","delta":-0.55,"crowd":{"consensus_prob":0.73,"n_matched":1,"orientation":"de-escalation","markets":[{"title":"Ukraine war ends in 2026?","prob":0.27,"volume":1502.57,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Gemc/ukraine-war-ends-in-2026"}]}}},"fetched_at":"2026-06-08T19:43:17.485485+00:00"}