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Total P&L
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Win Rate
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Open Positions
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Best / Worst
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Avg Return
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Last Signal
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📊 Open Positions 0
Market Side Entry Now P&L Held
No open positions
🗂 Recent Trades 0
Market Side Price P&L Hold Status Conf
No trade activity yet
🎯 Market Assessments Claude vs market - latest signal
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Market Theater Claude ¢ Market ¢ (live) Spread Edge ↓ Δ Cycle
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📜 Signal History 0
Time Signal Esc. Prob Conf
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Claude's escalation probability across all signal cycles. Dot size = confidence; color = direction (amber = ESCALATE, blue = DEESCALATE, grey = SKIP); ring = trade placed. Hover dots to inspect.

📈 Escalation Probability History last 20 signal cycles — hover to inspect
Kalshi Net Flow
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Polymarket Whale Bias
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Polymarket Net YES Flow
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📊 Kalshi Market Flow - 24h -
Market Alignment YES / NO Flow Volume Trades Biggest Momentum
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📊 Polymarket Market Flow - 24h -
Market YES / NO Flow Volume Trades Biggest Momentum
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🐋 Notable Kalshi Trades $200+ individual orders
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⚡ Notable Polymarket Trades $200+ individual orders (all traders)
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🏆 Polymarket Smart Money Positions -
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⚡ Recent Whale Trades Polymarket - large orders in last 24h
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Tracked Markets

All geo markets currently assessed by Claude — live probability estimate vs market price, sorted by absolute edge. Updates with each signal cycle.

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Strategy Calibration

Probability accuracy, edge capture, P&L attribution, and threshold sensitivity

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Live Configuration

Current bot settings

Strategy: Global conflict — Middle East · Ukraine · Taiwan · N.Korea
Exchange: Kalshi (US-regulated)
Signal model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Review model: claude-haiku-4-5
Poll interval: 10 minutes
Position management: Continuous (every 30s)
Trades per cycle: One — highest-edge candidate only
Min confidence: 0.72
Take-profit: +20¢ price move OR 50% return on entry cost (dynamic — Claude can extend)
Stop-loss: −10¢ price move (dynamic — Claude can override)
Min entry price: 5¢ per contract
Escalation decay: Half-life ≈ 6.4 h, mean-reverts to 25% between signals
Market Regime
Auto-classified from rolling escalation probability, urgency distribution, and vol regime across recent signals
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Avg Escalation
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Esc Trend
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High Urgency
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Vol Regime
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Edge Distribution
Claude probability − market price across all scored markets in signal history
Mean Edge
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Median Edge
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+Edge Markets
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Samples
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Equity Curve & Drawdown
Cumulative P&L across closed trades — red shading = drawdown from peak
Total P&L
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Max Drawdown
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Win Rate
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Closed Trades
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Kelly Position Sizing
Optimal bet per market based on edge vs market price. Showing ½ Kelly (conservative). $1,000 paper bankroll.
Market Side Claude / Mkt Edge Full Kelly ½ Kelly $ vs $50 base
YES: Kelly = (claude − market) ÷ (1 − market)  ·  NO: Kelly = (market − claude) ÷ market  ·  Capped at 25%  ·  ½ Kelly applied for safety
Knowledge graph

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We promoted the interactive ontology explorer to a standalone page so it can use the full viewport and be linked / shared on its own URL. Same Cytoscape view, same data, same click-to-explore, just bigger.

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About

Now a standalone page.

We promoted the platform write-up to its own URL so it has proper marketing-page typography, social-share metadata, and a more readable layout for prose. Same content, more depth.

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Claude
Market
Edge
Signal
📡 Signal Intelligence
Key signals filtered to items relevant to this market's question. If fewer than 2 match, top cycle signals are shown instead.

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