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Tracked Markets
All geo markets currently assessed by Claude — live probability estimate vs market price, sorted by absolute edge. Updates with each signal cycle.
Strategy Calibration
Probability accuracy, edge capture, P&L attribution, and threshold sensitivity
Current bot settings
Exchange: Kalshi (US-regulated)
Signal model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Review model: claude-haiku-4-5
Poll interval: 10 minutes
Position management: Continuous (every 30s)
Trades per cycle: One — highest-edge candidate only
Min confidence: 0.72
Take-profit: +20¢ price move OR 50% return on entry cost (dynamic — Claude can extend)
Stop-loss: −10¢ price move (dynamic — Claude can override)
Min entry price: 5¢ per contract
Escalation decay: Half-life ≈ 6.4 h, mean-reverts to 25% between signals
Conflict monitoring that
trades while you sleep
TrenchSignals reads geopolitical news around the clock, scores escalation probability with Claude AI, and autonomously manages positions on Kalshi prediction markets — no manual intervention required.
Four steps. Fully autonomous.
Monitor
150+ live sources — RSS feeds, Telegram OSINT channels, Twitter/X, and official statements — are ingested every cycle and ranked by credibility before anything reaches Claude.
Analyze
Claude reads across sources with opposing biases and produces a calibrated escalation probability, cross-checked against smart money positioning and live Kalshi prices.
Signal
One trade is selected per cycle — the highest-edge candidate that passes all risk filters. Every signal is logged with full reasoning.
Execute
A position is entered and monitored every 30 seconds. Claude reviews every exit trigger and adjusts thresholds as the news evolves — not on a fixed timer.
Built for conflict markets.
150+ Live Sources
RSS feeds, Telegram OSINT channels, curated Twitter/X handles, and official government statements — all weighted by source bias so Claude reasons across adversarial signals.
Bias-Corrected Analysis
Iranian state media, Western wire services, and independent OSINT are read in the same pass. A calibrated read, not a reaction to whichever headline is loudest.
Smart Money Tracking
Top Polymarket traders are tracked by position. When they're on the other side of a signal, confidence is penalized accordingly.
Autonomous Management
Open positions are checked every 30 seconds. Claude exits, holds, or adjusts thresholds based on the latest news — not a clock.
Full Audit Trail
Every signal and trade is logged with Claude's full reasoning. Nothing is a black box.
Calibration Tracking
Every market call is scored against the outcome. Brier scores and P&L attribution feed back into signal quality over time.
By the numbers.
Architecture & methodology
Full technical details — how a trade happens end-to-end, every data source, all nine intelligence layers, the five-layer escalation probability stack, risk controls, and key modules.
End-to-end cycle
edge = Claude's estimate − market mid. Per-theater probabilities are used as fallbacks for theater-specific markets, preventing signal bleed across theaters.News & social
| Source | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 70 RSS feeds | Western wire, Israeli official, Iranian state, Iranian opposition, OSINT, Gulf/Arab, Turkish, Chinese state, nuclear specialist (Arms Control Assoc, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, FAS, 38 North), IAEA direct, EU diplomatic, think tanks (CSIS, CFR, Brookings) | Polled every tick, 10-worker parallel fetch |
| Telegram (28 channels) | Real-time OSINT — Iran-focused, military/weapons ID, Gaza Now, Flash Point ME, Aurora Intel (AIS/NOTAM/satellite), Nuclear Iran, Ukraine Weapons Tracker | Direct Telethon stream; rsshub RSS fallback |
| Twitter / X | 25+ curated handles — smart money traders auto-added from Polymarket leaderboard | Polled every tick |
Market & financial data
| Source | What we get | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Conflict market mid prices, bid/ask, open interest, full 24h trade history | Every 30 min |
| Polymarket | Conflict market prices, top trader positions and large trades | Every 30 min |
| Yahoo Finance | 11 instruments: ILS/USD (war premium indicator), Tel Aviv 35, Brent, WTI, Gold, VIX, USD Index, Defense ETFs (ITA + XAR), Uranium ETF, Nat Gas | Every 15 min (cached) |
| Manifold Markets | Open Iran/Israel prediction questions — superforecaster consensus to calibrate Claude's priors | Every 30 min |
| USGS Seismic | Earthquake events in Iran bounding box — flags shallow events near Natanz, Fordow, Parchin, Bushehr as potential nuclear signatures | Every 15 min |
What gets injected into Claude's prompt
- Live market prices — All tracked Kalshi markets with current mid prices. Claude treats the mid as the market's prior and only acts where its estimate meaningfully diverges.
- Source bias profiles — Credibility and bias notes per source type, enabling Claude to triangulate across adversarial sources. Iranian state + independent OSINT agreement carries extra weight.
- Source diversity & velocity — Counts of distinct source types, freshness, and a velocity detector. 4+ independent editorial pipelines publishing in a burst earns +0.07 confidence — the strongest corroboration signal.
- Signal history trend — Recent signal history condensed into a slow-moving trend. Prevents whipsawing on single-cycle outliers.
- Whale tracker — Top Polymarket traders across 12 conflict markets. Per-market divergence: when ≥60/40 split, −0.06 confidence penalty; ≥75% one side, +0.04 consensus bonus.
- Kalshi order flow — 24h taker-side volumes, momentum, and net escalation flow. Strong opposing flow is treated as a red flag.
- Volume spike alerts — Flags unusual volume surges (≥3× hourly baseline). Multiple markets spiking simultaneously signals a potentially market-moving event.
- Financial market indicators — 11 instruments including ILS/USD (war-risk thermometer — moved before news confirmed Oct 7 2023 and April 2024), TA35, Brent-WTI spread, Gold, VIX, Defense ETFs, Uranium ETF. BULLISH earns +0.05 confidence.
- Scheduled event calendar — IAEA board sessions, UNSC votes, Iran nuclear talks, DPRK dates, NATO summits injected with countdown labels. Breaking news near a HIGH-significance event earns +0.05 confidence.
Five compounding layers
Each layer addresses a different weakness in relying solely on Claude's raw self-report.
| Layer | Name | What it solves |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Raw | Claude's direct 0–1 estimate |
| 1 | EWMA Smooth | Single-cycle noise — α=0.25, ~30 min half-life |
| 2 | Composite | Circular self-referencing — deterministic weighted formula across all four theaters with a multi-theater bonus up to 1.25× |
| 3 | Market-Implied | Missing external anchor — mean Kalshi mid price per theater, globally weighted |
| 4 | Persistent Decay | Gaps between cycles — probability decays toward neutral between polls, persists across restarts |
Signal quality filters
- Minimum confidence threshold of 0.72 — signals below this are skipped entirely
- Edge must exceed a minimum spread — threshold tightens in high-volatility regimes
- Markets below 5¢ entry price are skipped — thin liquidity makes reliable fills impossible
- Stale news cycles are penalized — confidence is capped to discourage acting on outdated information
Position sizing & exits
Default take-profit is +20¢ from entry; stop-loss is −10¢. Both are dynamic — Claude adjusts them at each review. A 50% return floor also triggers exit for cheap contracts that can never reach the absolute delta but are clearly winners. Settled markets are handled automatically — the bot records the resolution price and closes without placing a sell order on a closed book.
Portfolio caps
- Hard caps on exposure per individual market
- Hard caps per theater cluster — 60% max per cluster
- One trade per signal cycle — the single highest-edge candidate that clears all filters
Circuit breaker
Consecutive SKIP signals trigger a warning flag — indicating either a data source issue or a genuinely quiet news cycle with no actionable edge.
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