What is TrenchSignals?

TrenchSignals is a fully autonomous AI trading bot built to monitor geopolitical conflict and execute trades on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.

It watches the world so you don't have to - scanning news wires, government sources, OSINT Telegram channels, and whale wallets in real time, then trading when the signal is strong enough.

Currently focused on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and Middle East conflict markets - areas where news moves fast and markets lag.

What We Trade

We focus on geopolitical prediction markets - questions about war, diplomacy, nuclear deals, and conflict escalation where public information creates real pricing inefficiencies.

The bot only enters positions when confidence is above 68% and edge is meaningful. It sets dynamic take-profit and stop-loss levels for every trade, adjusted by Claude AI based on signal strength.

All trades are executed gaslessly on Kalshi and Polymarket with no manual intervention required.

The Signal Pipeline

• 1

  Monitor

  TrenchSignals ingests a proprietary blend of news wires, government sources, regional media, OSINT channels, and institutional trading activity - continuously, around the clock. No headline goes unread.

• 2

  Analyze

  Every incoming signal is processed by a fine-tuned AI layer that scores it for escalation probability, directional conviction, urgency, and cross-source triangulation. Noise is filtered. Only meaningful intelligence advances.

• 3

  Signal

  When conviction clears our confidence threshold, a directional signal is generated and mapped to relevant prediction markets. The system checks for genuine pricing inefficiencies before any trade is considered - edge is required, not optional.

• 4

  Trade

  Positions are sized dynamically based on signal strength and portfolio exposure rules. Orders execute autonomously on Kalshi and Polymarket with no human intervention. A trade alert fires the moment a position opens.

• 5

  Monitor & Exit

  Every open position is watched in real time. A second AI layer continuously evaluates whether to hold, take profit, or cut losses - and explains its reasoning. When a position closes, a full exit report is logged automatically.