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📊 Open Positions 0
Market Theater Side Entry Now P&L Cost TP / SL Held
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🗂 Recent Trades 0
Market Side Price P&L Hold Status Conf
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🎯 Market Assessments Claude vs market - latest signal
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Market Theater Claude ¢ Market ¢ (live) Spread Edge ↓ Δ Cycle
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⚡ Live Assessment -
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📜 Signal History 0
Time Signal Esc. Prob Conf
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Claude's escalation probability across all signal cycles. Dot size = confidence; color = direction (amber = ESCALATE, blue = DEESCALATE, grey = SKIP); ring = trade placed. Hover dots to inspect.

📈 Escalation Probability History last 20 signal cycles — hover to inspect
Kalshi Net Flow
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Polymarket Whale Bias
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📊 Kalshi Market Flow - 24h -
Market Alignment YES / NO Flow Volume Trades Biggest Momentum
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📊 Polymarket Market Flow - 24h -
Market YES / NO Flow Volume Trades Biggest Momentum
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🐋 Notable Kalshi Trades $200+ individual orders
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⚡ Notable Polymarket Trades $200+ individual orders (all traders)
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🏆 Polymarket Smart Money Positions -
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⚡ Recent Whale Trades Polymarket - large orders in last 24h
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Tracked Markets

All geo markets currently assessed by Claude — live probability estimate vs market price, sorted by absolute edge. Updates with each signal cycle.

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Strategy Calibration

Probability accuracy, edge capture, P&L attribution, and threshold sensitivity

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Live Configuration

Current bot settings

Strategy: Global conflict — Middle East · Ukraine · Taiwan · N.Korea
Exchange: Kalshi (US-regulated)
Signal model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Review model: claude-haiku-4-5
Poll interval: 10 minutes
Position management: Continuous (every 30s)
Trades per cycle: One — highest-edge candidate only
Min confidence: 0.72
Take-profit: +20¢ price move OR 50% return on entry cost (dynamic — Claude can extend)
Stop-loss: −10¢ price move (dynamic — Claude can override)
Min entry price: 5¢ per contract
Escalation decay: Half-life ≈ 6.4 h, mean-reverts to 25% between signals
Market Regime
Auto-classified from rolling escalation probability, urgency distribution, and vol regime across recent signals
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Avg Escalation
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Esc Trend
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High Urgency
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Vol Regime
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Edge Distribution
Claude probability − market price across all scored markets in signal history
Mean Edge
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Median Edge
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+Edge Markets
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Samples
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Equity Curve & Drawdown
Cumulative P&L across closed trades — red shading = drawdown from peak
Total P&L
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Max Drawdown
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Win Rate
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Closed Trades
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Kelly Position Sizing
Optimal bet per market based on edge vs market price. Showing ½ Kelly (conservative). $1,000 paper bankroll assumed.
Market Side Claude / Mkt Edge Full Kelly ½ Kelly $ vs $50 base
YES: Kelly = (claude − market) ÷ (1 − market)  ·  NO: Kelly = (market − claude) ÷ market  ·  Capped at 25%  ·  ½ Kelly applied for safety
Autonomous Intelligence

Conflict monitoring that
trades while you sleep

TrenchSignals reads geopolitical news around the clock, scores escalation probability with Claude AI, and autonomously manages positions on Kalshi prediction markets — no manual intervention required.

How it works

Four steps. Fully autonomous.

1

Monitor

150+ live sources — RSS feeds, Telegram OSINT channels, Twitter/X, and official statements — are ingested every cycle and ranked by credibility before anything reaches Claude.

2

Analyze

Claude reads across sources with opposing biases and produces a calibrated escalation probability, cross-checked against smart money positioning and live Kalshi prices.

3

Signal

One trade is selected per cycle — the highest-edge candidate that passes all risk filters. Every signal is logged with full reasoning.

4

Execute

A position is entered and monitored every 30 seconds. Claude reviews every exit trigger and adjusts thresholds as the news evolves — not on a fixed timer.

Capabilities

Built for conflict markets.

📡

150+ Live Sources

RSS feeds, Telegram OSINT channels, curated Twitter/X handles, and official government statements — all weighted by source bias so Claude reasons across adversarial signals.

🧠

Bias-Corrected Analysis

Iranian state media, Western wire services, and independent OSINT are read in the same pass. A calibrated read, not a reaction to whichever headline is loudest.

🐋

Smart Money Tracking

Top Polymarket traders are tracked by position. When they're on the other side of a signal, confidence is penalized accordingly.

⚙️

Autonomous Management

Open positions are checked every 30 seconds. Claude exits, holds, or adjusts thresholds based on the latest news — not a clock.

🗂

Full Audit Trail

Every signal and trade is logged with Claude's full reasoning. Nothing is a black box.

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Calibration Tracking

Every market call is scored against the outcome. Brier scores and P&L attribution feed back into signal quality over time.

Coverage

By the numbers.

120+
Kalshi markets tracked
~10m
Signal cycle
150+
Live data sources
11
Intelligence layers
24/7
Always on
Under the Hood

Architecture & methodology

Full technical details — how a trade happens end-to-end, every data source, all nine intelligence layers, the five-layer escalation probability stack, risk controls, and key modules.

How a trade happens

End-to-end cycle

1
News arrives — RSS feeds, Twitter/X, and Telegram OSINT channels are polled continuously. Articles are filtered by conflict keywords and deduplicated before analysis.
2
Claude analyzes — Fresh items are packed into a structured prompt alongside live market data and intelligence context. Claude assigns a global escalation probability, per-theater probabilities, a direction (ESCALATE / DEESCALATE / SKIP), a confidence score, and a probability estimate for every tracked Kalshi market. It also generates 1–3 headline-style TL;DR bullets — these appear live on the dashboard.
3
Edge is computed — For each market: edge = Claude's estimate − market mid. Per-theater probabilities are used as fallbacks for theater-specific markets, preventing signal bleed across theaters.
4
Guardrails run — Minimum confidence, minimum entry price, portfolio concentration limits, and a direction-skew penalty are applied. Candidates that fail any filter are discarded.
5
Order placed — One trade per signal cycle: the highest-edge candidate that clears all filters. A limit order is submitted on Kalshi. Position size is fixed at the configured base size for consistent risk exposure.
6
Position monitored — Open positions are checked every 30 seconds against take-profit (+20¢ or 50% return) and stop-loss (−10¢) thresholds. Claude reviews each trigger and can hold, exit, or adjust thresholds based on the latest news. Settled markets are detected automatically and closed at the resolution price.
Data Sources

News & social

SourceTypeNotes
70 RSS feedsWestern wire, Israeli official, Iranian state, Iranian opposition, OSINT, Gulf/Arab, Turkish, Chinese state, nuclear specialist (Arms Control Assoc, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, FAS, 38 North), IAEA direct, EU diplomatic, think tanks (CSIS, CFR, Brookings)Polled every tick, 10-worker parallel fetch
Telegram (28 channels)Real-time OSINT — Iran-focused, military/weapons ID, Gaza Now, Flash Point ME, Aurora Intel (AIS/NOTAM/satellite), Nuclear Iran, Ukraine Weapons TrackerDirect Telethon stream; rsshub RSS fallback
Twitter / X25+ curated handles — smart money traders auto-added from Polymarket leaderboardPolled every tick

Market & financial data

SourceWhat we getFrequency
KalshiConflict market mid prices, bid/ask, open interest, full 24h trade historyEvery 30 min
PolymarketConflict market prices, top trader positions and large tradesEvery 30 min
Yahoo Finance11 instruments: ILS/USD (war premium indicator), Tel Aviv 35, Brent, WTI, Gold, VIX, USD Index, Defense ETFs (ITA + XAR), Uranium ETF, Nat GasEvery 15 min (cached)
Manifold MarketsOpen Iran/Israel prediction questions — superforecaster consensus to calibrate Claude's priorsEvery 30 min
USGS SeismicEarthquake events in Iran bounding box — flags shallow events near Natanz, Fordow, Parchin, Bushehr as potential nuclear signaturesEvery 15 min
Intelligence Layers

What gets injected into Claude's prompt

  1. Live market prices — All tracked Kalshi markets with current mid prices. Claude treats the mid as the market's prior and only acts where its estimate meaningfully diverges.
  2. Source bias profiles — Credibility and bias notes per source type, enabling Claude to triangulate across adversarial sources. Iranian state + independent OSINT agreement carries extra weight.
  3. Source diversity & velocity — Counts of distinct source types, freshness, and a velocity detector. 4+ independent editorial pipelines publishing in a burst earns +0.07 confidence — the strongest corroboration signal.
  4. Signal history trend — Recent signal history condensed into a slow-moving trend. Prevents whipsawing on single-cycle outliers.
  5. Whale tracker — Top Polymarket traders across 12 conflict markets. Per-market divergence: when ≥60/40 split, −0.06 confidence penalty; ≥75% one side, +0.04 consensus bonus.
  6. Kalshi order flow — 24h taker-side volumes, momentum, and net escalation flow. Strong opposing flow is treated as a red flag.
  7. Volume spike alerts — Flags unusual volume surges (≥3× hourly baseline). Multiple markets spiking simultaneously signals a potentially market-moving event.
  8. Financial market indicators — 11 instruments including ILS/USD (war-risk thermometer — moved before news confirmed Oct 7 2023 and April 2024), TA35, Brent-WTI spread, Gold, VIX, Defense ETFs, Uranium ETF. BULLISH earns +0.05 confidence.
  9. Scheduled event calendar — IAEA board sessions, UNSC votes, Iran nuclear talks, DPRK dates, NATO summits injected with countdown labels. Breaking news near a HIGH-significance event earns +0.05 confidence.
Escalation Probability

Five compounding layers

Each layer addresses a different weakness in relying solely on Claude's raw self-report.

LayerNameWhat it solves
0RawClaude's direct 0–1 estimate
1EWMA SmoothSingle-cycle noise — α=0.25, ~30 min half-life
2CompositeCircular self-referencing — deterministic weighted formula across all four theaters with a multi-theater bonus up to 1.25×
3Market-ImpliedMissing external anchor — mean Kalshi mid price per theater, globally weighted
4Persistent DecayGaps between cycles — probability decays toward neutral between polls, persists across restarts
Risk Management

Signal quality filters

  • Minimum confidence threshold of 0.72 — signals below this are skipped entirely
  • Edge must exceed a minimum spread — threshold tightens in high-volatility regimes
  • Markets below 5¢ entry price are skipped — thin liquidity makes reliable fills impossible
  • Stale news cycles are penalized — confidence is capped to discourage acting on outdated information

Position sizing & exits

Default take-profit is +20¢ from entry; stop-loss is −10¢. Both are dynamic — Claude adjusts them at each review. A 50% return floor also triggers exit for cheap contracts that can never reach the absolute delta but are clearly winners. Settled markets are handled automatically — the bot records the resolution price and closes without placing a sell order on a closed book.

Portfolio caps

  • Hard caps on exposure per individual market
  • Hard caps per theater cluster — 60% max per cluster
  • One trade per signal cycle — the single highest-edge candidate that clears all filters

Circuit breaker

Consecutive SKIP signals trigger a warning flag — indicating either a data source issue or a genuinely quiet news cycle with no actionable edge.

Not financial advice. TrenchSignals is an autonomous trading system in active development. Prediction market trading involves significant risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This dashboard is for informational and research purposes only.

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