| Market | Theater | Side | Entry | Now | P&L | Cost | TP / SL | Held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No open positions | ||||||||
| Market | Side | Price | P&L | Hold | Status | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trade activity yet | ||||||
| Market | Theater | Claude ¢ | Market ¢ (live) | Spread | Edge ↓ | Δ Cycle |
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| No assessment data yet - waiting for next signal cycle | ||||||
| Market | Theater | Side | Entry | Now | P&L | Cost | TP / SL | Held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No open positions | ||||||||
| Market | Side | Price | P&L | Hold | Status | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trade activity yet | ||||||
| Market | Theater | Claude ¢ | Market ¢ (live) | Spread | Edge ↓ | Δ Cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No assessment data yet - waiting for next signal cycle | ||||||
Claude's escalation probability across all signal cycles. Dot size = confidence; color = direction (amber = ESCALATE, blue = DEESCALATE, grey = SKIP); ring = trade placed. Hover dots to inspect.
| Market | Alignment | YES / NO Flow | Volume | Trades | Biggest | Momentum |
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| Market | YES / NO Flow | Volume | Trades | Biggest | Momentum |
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All geo markets currently assessed by Claude — live probability estimate vs market price, sorted by absolute edge. Updates with each signal cycle.
Probability accuracy, edge capture, P&L attribution, and threshold sensitivity
| Market | Side | Claude / Mkt | Edge | Full Kelly | ½ Kelly $ | vs $50 base |
|---|
TrenchSignals reads geopolitical news around the clock, scores escalation probability with Claude AI, and autonomously manages positions on Kalshi prediction markets — no manual intervention required.
150+ live sources — RSS feeds, Telegram OSINT channels, Twitter/X, and official statements — are ingested every cycle and ranked by credibility before anything reaches Claude.
Claude reads across sources with opposing biases and produces a calibrated escalation probability, cross-checked against smart money positioning and live Kalshi prices.
One trade is selected per cycle — the highest-edge candidate that passes all risk filters. Every signal is logged with full reasoning.
A position is entered and monitored every 30 seconds. Claude reviews every exit trigger and adjusts thresholds as the news evolves — not on a fixed timer.
RSS feeds, Telegram OSINT channels, curated Twitter/X handles, and official government statements — all weighted by source bias so Claude reasons across adversarial signals.
Iranian state media, Western wire services, and independent OSINT are read in the same pass. A calibrated read, not a reaction to whichever headline is loudest.
Top Polymarket traders are tracked by position. When they're on the other side of a signal, confidence is penalized accordingly.
Open positions are checked every 30 seconds. Claude exits, holds, or adjusts thresholds based on the latest news — not a clock.
Every signal and trade is logged with Claude's full reasoning. Nothing is a black box.
Every market call is scored against the outcome. Brier scores and P&L attribution feed back into signal quality over time.
Full technical details — how a trade happens end-to-end, every data source, all nine intelligence layers, the five-layer escalation probability stack, risk controls, and key modules.
edge = Claude's estimate − market mid. Per-theater probabilities are used as fallbacks for theater-specific markets, preventing signal bleed across theaters.| Source | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 70 RSS feeds | Western wire, Israeli official, Iranian state, Iranian opposition, OSINT, Gulf/Arab, Turkish, Chinese state, nuclear specialist (Arms Control Assoc, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, FAS, 38 North), IAEA direct, EU diplomatic, think tanks (CSIS, CFR, Brookings) | Polled every tick, 10-worker parallel fetch |
| Telegram (28 channels) | Real-time OSINT — Iran-focused, military/weapons ID, Gaza Now, Flash Point ME, Aurora Intel (AIS/NOTAM/satellite), Nuclear Iran, Ukraine Weapons Tracker | Direct Telethon stream; rsshub RSS fallback |
| Twitter / X | 25+ curated handles — smart money traders auto-added from Polymarket leaderboard | Polled every tick |
| Source | What we get | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Conflict market mid prices, bid/ask, open interest, full 24h trade history | Every 30 min |
| Polymarket | Conflict market prices, top trader positions and large trades | Every 30 min |
| Yahoo Finance | 11 instruments: ILS/USD (war premium indicator), Tel Aviv 35, Brent, WTI, Gold, VIX, USD Index, Defense ETFs (ITA + XAR), Uranium ETF, Nat Gas | Every 15 min (cached) |
| Manifold Markets | Open Iran/Israel prediction questions — superforecaster consensus to calibrate Claude's priors | Every 30 min |
| USGS Seismic | Earthquake events in Iran bounding box — flags shallow events near Natanz, Fordow, Parchin, Bushehr as potential nuclear signatures | Every 15 min |
Each layer addresses a different weakness in relying solely on Claude's raw self-report.
| Layer | Name | What it solves |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Raw | Claude's direct 0–1 estimate |
| 1 | EWMA Smooth | Single-cycle noise — α=0.25, ~30 min half-life |
| 2 | Composite | Circular self-referencing — deterministic weighted formula across all four theaters with a multi-theater bonus up to 1.25× |
| 3 | Market-Implied | Missing external anchor — mean Kalshi mid price per theater, globally weighted |
| 4 | Persistent Decay | Gaps between cycles — probability decays toward neutral between polls, persists across restarts |
Default take-profit is +20¢ from entry; stop-loss is −10¢. Both are dynamic — Claude adjusts them at each review. A 50% return floor also triggers exit for cheap contracts that can never reach the absolute delta but are clearly winners. Settled markets are handled automatically — the bot records the resolution price and closes without placing a sell order on a closed book.
Consecutive SKIP signals trigger a warning flag — indicating either a data source issue or a genuinely quiet news cycle with no actionable edge.
We're onboarding a limited number of traders. Join the waitlist and we'll reach out when a spot opens up.