Geopolitical Knowledge Graph · v1

The geopolitical graph,
queryable as a REST API.

A persistent ontology of countries, militant groups, leaders, places, and financial instruments — with every news item, financial move, whale trade, forecaster question, and seismic event linked to the entities they touch. The same graph an autonomous conflict-market trader consumes; available for researchers, quants, and developers.

Live state · refreshed on page load
Entities
Events tagged
Source types
Markets linked
Three doors

One graph. Three audiences.

The platform serves quants, researchers, and traders from the same persistent data layer. Pick your entry point.

Why ontology

Pattern matching vs.
grounded reasoning.

A generic LLM reading news every cycle is pattern-matching on tokens. The same words mean different things in different contexts, and there's no traceable chain from a headline to a decision. An ontology fixes this.

Without ontology

Token-soup intelligence

  • "Iran" is a token, not a node. Each cycle re-derives state from raw text.
  • Markets evaluated independently — no cross-cluster awareness.
  • Reasoning is a paragraph; provenance dies inside the prompt.
  • Sources weighted equally regardless of bias or track record.
  • No structured way to slice outcomes by entity or signal cluster.
TrenchSignals + ontology

Grounded, traceable reasoning

  • 74+ named entities with stable IDs and 65+ typed relationships.
  • Every news, financial, whale, and seismic event tagged to the entities it touches.
  • Per-entity exposure caps prevent silent over-concentration.
  • Source-credibility weighting separates Reuters from a bot account.
  • Calibration by entity cluster + confluence band tells you what actually predicts outcomes.
How the graph stays current

12 source types, every 10 minutes.

An autonomous bot polls the world, deterministically tags every signal with the entities it touches, and writes it to a persistent SQLite-backed graph.

01 / News

70+ RSS feeds, OSINT, social

Reuters, AP, BBC, Al-Monitor, IDF official, Iran state, Telegram OSINT (Aurora Intel, ME Spectator, Flash Point ME), curated Twitter handles.

02 / Financial

11 instruments (Yahoo Finance)

ILS/USD as Israel war-risk thermometer, Brent + WTI, Tel Aviv 35, Gold, VIX, Defense ETFs, Uranium ETF, Nat Gas — material moves logged with leading-indicator graph edges.

03 / Smart money

Polymarket whale flow

Top trader positions and large recent trades, tagged to the markets and entities they touch. Net direction per cluster.

04 / Forecasters

Manifold + Metaculus consensus

Superforecaster probabilities on conflict questions, joined into the graph by question topic.

05 / Seismic

USGS earthquake feed

Iran-region quakes filtered by proximity to nuclear sites (Natanz, Fordow, Bushehr). Suspicious events flagged.

06 / Calendar

Scheduled geopolitical events

IAEA Board sessions, UN Security Council votes, Iran nuclear talks, North Korea timelines — injected with countdown labels.

Quickstart

Three lines to a live signal.

Anonymous tier needs no signup. For higher rate limits, request a key.

# Live confluence score on a Kalshi conflict ticker
$ curl https://trenchsignals.io/v1/ontology/confluence/kalshi/KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL

{
  "score": 1.0,
  "weighted_credibility": 5.7,
  "source_types": ["financial", "forecaster", "osint", "scheduled", "telegram_osint", ...],
  "primary_event_count": 39
}
# Per-cluster digest — the same structured snapshot the bot's analyzer reads
$ curl https://trenchsignals.io/v1/ontology/digest -H "X-API-Key: ts_..."

{
  "iran": {
    "events_long": 129,
    "trend": "rising",
    "financial": [{"name": "Brent Crude", "title": "Brent ↑ +5.0%"}, ...],
    "whale_net_usd": 15742,
    "forecasters": ["Iran Nuclear Deal by Aug? = 23%", ...],
    "upcoming": ["Iran-US indirect talks · 2026-05-10 · HIGH"]
  },
  ...
}

Full endpoint reference →