I’m Chris. Each week I put explicit probabilities on resolvable questions where geopolitics moves the tape — Iran, Taiwan, oil, the Fed — say where I disagree with the market, and grade every call in public when it resolves. The read is amplified by an intelligence engine I built (70+ feeds, OSINT, financial + seismic tells), but the call — and the accountability for it — is mine.
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Source-ablation cron: 03:15 UTC
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Source on GitHub
A probability, the market’s number right beside it, a hard resolution rule, the thesis in plain words, and the line that would prove me wrong fast. No “tensions are rising” — a number, a deadline, and a public grade when it resolves.
A weekly issue of calibrated calls on where geopolitics moves markets — Iran, Taiwan, oil, the Fed. Explicit probabilities, a resolution date on every call, and the miss I’m owning that week at the top. Free while the track record builds.
Subscribe →Every call I’ve made, logged and timestamped, scored with a Brier when it resolves — wins and losses, open and closed. You never have to take my word for the accuracy. You can check it yourself.
Open the receipts →The engine behind the read: 70+ feeds, OSINT, financial + seismic tells, superforecaster consensus, re-scanned every ten minutes. How a signal becomes a probability — and how each one is graded.
Read the methodology →Or jump straight to the proof: calibration · the misses I’ve owned · the pre-registration chain · the diary
Press or media? Press kit, story angles & contact →
Native-language reads IRNA (ایرنا), Ynet (ynet), Kommersant (Коммерсантъ), Asharq (الشرق), Xinhua (新华社) — 10 native-script sources across 5 alphabets, plus 109 English-language wires. No translation layer; Claude reads each in its source language. See the full source list →
When Trench loses, it labels why: wrong signal, wrong thesis, or shouldn't have entered at all. Wins are easy to brag about. Owning the specific losses, with the time and the reasoning still attached, is the harder thing. Three recent ones from the diary:
Every loss with its lesson on the Wall of Transparency → · Full append-only diary at /log →
Trench isn't a chatbot trained to sound confident. It's a four-step loop that runs every 10 minutes: read, tag, score, decide. If one source of intel goes dark, the loop keeps running with what's left.
RSS wires, Iran/Israel state media, Telegram OSINT, curated Twitter, 11 financial instruments, Polymarket whale flow, Kalshi order flow, Manifold/Metaculus consensus, USGS seismic data, scheduled events, live market prices.
Each item, whether a Reuters headline, a Farsi IRNA story, a Brent +5% move, or a Hezbollah whale trade, gets linked via a 227-alias resolver covering 93 named entities (countries, leaders, militant groups, military operations, financial instruments, choke-points). The graph grows. One shared semantic layer across 12 source types.
Edge = Trench's probability − market mid. Multiple gates filter candidates: confidence floor, edge floor, per-entity exposure cap, source-diversity confluence, position cap, session loss cap. Every entry-decision tick emits exactly one structured outcome line, so the funnel from "started cycle" to "placed trade" is fully observable.
Every source writes into the same graph, tagged to the entities it touches. The more independent source types confirm the same story, the more weight the signal gets. Twelve types of evidence outvote one.
Reuters, AP, BBC, Al-Monitor, IDF, IAEA, Bellingcat, FAS, 38 North, Kyiv Post, plus IRNA Farsi, Ynet Hebrew, Kommersant Russian, Al Jazeera Arabic, Xinhua Chinese, read directly with no translation layer.
Aurora Intel (AIS / NOTAM / satellite), ME Spectator, Flash Point ME, Nuclear Iran, Ukraine Weapons Tracker.
Conflict-focused accounts plus keyword search. Smart-money handles auto-added from the Polymarket leaderboard.
ILS/USD as Israel war-risk thermometer, Brent + WTI, Tel Aviv 35, Gold, VIX, USD Index, Defense ETF (ITA), Uranium, Nat Gas.
30 top traders' positions across 12 conflict markets. Per-market divergence + recent large trades. Net cluster bias.
Open prediction-market questions on conflict topics. Each question's median probability becomes a graph event.
Iran-region quakes filtered by proximity to nuclear sites (Natanz, Fordow, Bushehr, Parchin). Suspicious events flagged.
IAEA Board sessions, UNSC votes, Iran-US nuclear talks, DPRK timelines. Each injected with countdown labels.
Markets with current-hour volume ≥3× baseline are flagged. Entity event surges (3× baseline rate) trigger early-tick analysis.
Want the full picture? Read how Trench thinks →
Calibrated forecasts on where geopolitics moves markets — a number on every call, a resolution date, and the miss I’m owning that week at the top. Weekly, plus a short flash when something actually breaks. Free while the track record builds; one-click unsubscribe in every email.